Tuesday, June 28, 2005


Two-Four Tuesday (v.5)

Last week's list of the "Top Five" American industries in the year 1860 generated only 1 comment -- from the indefatigable aloma210. Visitors, if you're reading this sentence, I'd like you to go the extra mile this week and comment, please. According to the 1860 Census, the #2 item was indeed cotton goods ($110 million), and the #4 item was boots and shoes ($90 million).

My reference to #187 on the Fortune 500 (in 2003) was of course Nike. Funny how Nike alone now has the same revenues every 3 days, what the entire American boot and shoe industry collected in a whole year in 1860.

And now, on to today's game. We hope you'll play along again!

I will post the "Top Five" items in a list, except that I'm leaving out the 2nd and the 4th items. Your mission -- comment with your guesses (or "answers", if you're that confident) as to what the missing items are. Don't cheat by looking up the info on the web -- just have fun and take your own guess. I'll give the correct answers the following Tuesday.

Top Five brands of U.S. beer by sales volume, as listed in 1997 on BreweryAge.com.

1. Budweiser (20% market share)
2. ??
3. Miller Lite (9% share)
4. ????
5. Busch (5% share)

(No hints this week, you beer-swilling market analysts.)

Monday, June 27, 2005


Closed on Sundays

I never realized this, but car dealerships are typically closed on Sundays. I think this is a really bad idea, when many automobile manufacturers are struggling to move their products. Sure, there are positive aspects for the employees of an establishment that closes one or two days a week -- but in any retail trade, isn't it like tying one hand behind your back in a fistfight? Can you imagine an amusement park that closed on Sundays?

I'd be interested to learn if most dealerships that keep closed on the Christian sabbath are doing so because of actual blue laws or because they're simply continuing a time-honored custom. Some market research might show whether dealerships that aren't legally bound to shut their doors might benefit from keeping them open.

What do you think?

Tuesday, June 21, 2005


Two-Four Tuesday (v.4)

Last week's "Top Five" list of the worldwide "life years" affected by disability generated 1 comment, 1 e-mail, and 1 co-worker popping in and giving his guess in person. Thank you, visitors! According to the Global Burden of Disease study released by Harvard University, the #2 item was tuberculosis (19.7 million DALYs), and the #4 item was alcohol abuse (14.8 million DALYs).

I think several of us would be surprised that HIV/AIDS would not appear on the list. However, this may be due to the fact that victims of the HIV virus actually become incapacitated by and succumb to other diseases. In fact, I read that someone with HIV stands an 800 times greater chance of contracting tuberculosis than a non-HIV counterpart would. Sad and amazing, and probably explains in part why TB was #2 on Harvard's list.

And now, on to today's game. We hope you'll play along again!

I will post the "Top Five" items in a list, except that I'm leaving out the 2nd and the 4th items. Your mission -- comment with your guesses (or "answers", if you're that confident) as to what the missing items are. Don't cheat by looking up the info on the web -- just have fun and take your own guess. I'll give the correct answers the following Tuesday.

Top Five American industries, as listed in the 1860 "Eighth Census of the United States Manufactures".

1. Flour ($250 million)
2. ??
3. Lumber ($105 million)
4. ????
5. Men's clothing ($75 million)

(Your hint: one answer is something that grows in the ground, the other is a manufacturing industry whose current leader appeared as #187 on the 2003 Fortune 500 list!)

Monday, June 20, 2005


Tonight in New York

This evening, I will be attending a roundtable discussion presented by Euro RSCG Magnet, regarding the "11th Annual Survey of the Media". This study, co-sponsored by the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, was managed by my account group and hosted on ICR's web server. I'll have more to say, obviously, after the event!

Wednesday, June 15, 2005


Peer Pressure

I recently read an interesting article called "Peer Pressure" in Forbes magazine. (The April 11, 2005 piece may be read online with a free subscription to Forbes.com. Click here to read the article by Ian Ayres and Barry Nalebuff.)

The gist of the article is that corporations and governments can and ought to give people good data and use peer pressure to modify behaviors. Yet, we see few examples of this being done.

The authors give one hypothetical example regarding home energy consumption. Imagine if your power company or fuel-oil provider evaluated how many BTU's per square foot per heating degree day (call it a B-Tush) your home was using. In fact, in 1997 the Department of Energy produced a survey finding that the U.S. average was 10. If your home were at 25, then you'd be among the worst 10%. Imagine how this information may induce many homeowners to get better insulation, adjust the thermostat, or dress more appropriately for the season. It would be very easy for a company to provide this information -- after all, they know where you live, and they likely provide the same service to your neighbors who have homes that are likely of a similar size and construction. But does your energy company provide you with this information? Probably not.

A real-life example from "Peer Pressure" is the Center for Environmental Law & Policy's Environmental Sustainability Index, which motivates entire nations to live and work cleaner and more efficiently. Other hypothetical examples included:
  • The IRS informing taxpayers how their charitable giving ranks versus others in their age and income bracket
  • Law schools telling admitted students the probability that they will become lawyers (based on demographic and performance measures)
  • Guiding college students on how many drinks are the norm at a party

A while back, I had a (brilliant, I thought) idea for our company's 401(k) retirement plan provider, T. Rowe Price. I always looked at my quarterly balance statement and wondered, "Is my performance any better than the average participant at ICR, or among workers at my income level and age?" I submitted this suggestion to T. Rowe, but their disappointing response was that implementing my idea would be virtually impossible because of all the variables across plans.

Come on. There are three important variables -- how much money your portfolio is currently worth, how much money you've deposited into the plan, and how long you've been investing. I understand that different people will often change their allocations and proportion of salary invested, and this would complicate the meaningfulness of the formula. But, as a concerned investor, I'd still want to see that comparison on my statement. If my account is performing substantially better than others like me, I'd be inclined not to monkey with it. If I'm lagging, then perhaps I'd need to look more carefully at my asset allocation.

I realize that in any consumer population, there are a percentage who just want to be left alone and have their privacy kept intact. However, I honestly think that more companies and more government agencies could provide these kinds of "peer pressure" indices, so that those of us who do care can benefit from the information.

If you have any ideas for a "peer pressure" index, please comment here!


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Tuesday, June 14, 2005


Two-Four Tuesday (v.3)

Last week's "Top Five" list of the names given to male cats generated 2 comments and an e-mail. Thank you, visitors! Seems like the guess for #2 was easier (Tiger) than the guess for #4 -- Shadow. Thank you, Veterinary Pet Insurance, for posting the most popular pet names on your website.

Did you know that (according to Petfinder) while dog households outnumber cat households, there are more cats (64.1 million) than dogs (63.8 million) in America?

And now, on to today's game. We hope you'll play along again!

I will post the "Top Five" items in a list, except that I'm leaving out the 2nd and the 4th items. Your mission -- comment with your guesses (or "answers", if you're that confident) as to what the missing items are. Don't cheat by looking up the info on the web -- just have fun and take your own guess. I'll give the correct answers the following Tuesday.

Top Five leading causes of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in the world, among 15-44 year olds, according to the Global Burden of Disease study by Harvard University.

1. Unipolar major depression (43 million DALYs)
2. ??
3. Road traffic accidents (19.6 million DALYs)
4. ????
5. Self-inflicted injuries (14.6 million DALYs)

(Your hint: one answer is an infectious disease, and the other is a behaviorial disease. Neither are bipolar disorder -- that's #6 on the list.)

Tuesday, June 07, 2005


Two-Four Tuesday (v.2)

Last week's "Top Five" list of the leading recording artists generated 5 comments. Thank you, visitors!

If aloma210 and Daniel Rubin had just gotten together, they could have had the correct combination of Elvis Presley and Garth Brooks as the #2 and #4 musicians in terms of cumulative U.S. album sales. Did you know that Garth Brooks gained a big boost in his measured popularity when Billboard magazine switched its way of measuring record sales in 1991? That's right -- prior to that date, the magazine relied on manually-completed reports submitted by a convenience sample of record store managers. After 1991, Billboard began to install automated bar-code reader software in many more stores. The system tracked each and every sale of a record, rather than relying on a manager to report sales. When the store managers' mistakes and biases were taken out of the equation, Brooks saw his estimated sales figures (and Billboard ranking) jump dramatically.

And now, on to today's game. We hope you'll play along again!

I will post the "Top Five" items in a list, except that I'm leaving out the 2nd and the 4th items. Your mission -- comment with your guesses (or "answers", if you're that confident) as to what the missing items are. Don't cheat by looking up the info on the web -- just have fun and take your own guess. I'll give the correct answers the following Tuesday.

Top Five pet names given to male cats, according to the Veterinary Pet Insurance Company.

1. Max
2. ?? (hint: it's an animal)
3. Oliver
4. ???? (hint: it's a physical phenomenon)
5. Sam

Thursday, June 02, 2005


Response rates, according to Wikipedia

If you go to the Wikipedia entry for Survey research, specifically the part about Survey methods, you see a brief outline of Telephone, Mail, Online, personal in-home, and personal mall intercept methodologies.

I want you to consider the response rates listed for phone (25%-50%), mail (5%-30%), and online (2%-30%). Do they seem reasonable to you? I hope so, because I entered them into that particular article in the Wikipedia. (In case you don't know already, anyone can edit the Wikipedia -- it's an open-code encyclopedia, an amazing living document. If you haven't used and edited Wikipedia yet, do so today.)

Prior to my edits, an earlier author had pegged the response rates at 40%-60% for phone, and 30%-60% for online. I thought those were unreasonably optimistic and/or grossly outdated, so I changed them. To see the specific changes I made in the Wikipedia, check out this link.

I'd be curious to know what others in the field of survey research think, so please comment.